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Driven by the AI investment boom, China's exports surged 27% year-on-year in June, far exceeding expectations and marking the highest growth rate in over four years. First-half exports grew by 17.6% year-on-year. Crude oil imports fell 41% year-on-year in June, soybean imports hit a 13-month high, and aluminum exports reached a record high. Imports and exports of computing power hardware grew by 55.6% in the first half of the year.
Signs of large capital inflows emerge: Nearly 60 billion yuan flowed into A-share equity ETFs in one day; A-share margin trading balances declined for the eighth consecutive day, marking the longest consecutive decline in 15 months.
US inflation cooled more than expected: June CPI fell month-on-month for the first time in six years, while core CPI unexpectedly showed zero growth.
Wash's first congressional testimony: The Fed has "zero tolerance" for persistently high inflation and will act according to data even if Trump criticizes it. The June CPI cooling does not mean the inflation "mission is accomplished." "New Fed News Agency" comments: Warsh emphasized zero tolerance for high inflation but did not hint at the interest rate path.
Trump reversed his stance after just one day: abandoning the 20% charge on cargo shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, replacing it with a trade and investment agreement between the Gulf states and the US, causing a flash crash in US oil prices. Trump announced a "large-scale" oil deal with Iraq, and the Iraqi Prime Minister stated that US troops must withdraw by the end of September. Iran declared that the US had entered a formal state of war.
Market Overview
US CPI fell more than expected, pushing the Nasdaq close to a three-week high; US Treasury bonds and gold and silver prices rallied intraday, with US Treasury yields briefly plunging more than 10 basis points from their daily highs; gold and silver hit daily highs, with gold futures rising nearly 3% and silver futures rising more than 3%; the US dollar index hit a daily low, and the offshore yuan broke through 6.77 intraday for the first time in nearly a month.
Following Trump's announcement of canceling the Strait of Hormuz cargo shipment charge plan, US oil prices experienced a flash crash, initially rising 4% intraday before turning negative, closing up 1.5%, with both Brent and WTI crude hitting one-month highs. LME copper and NYMEX copper both hit three-week highs.
